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The stubborn regression to the mean

It's mathematical: if a variable is extreme in its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average in its second measurement and, paradoxically, if it's extreme in its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average in its first measurement.

Jose Barreiro

Jan 19, 2024

It's mathematical: if a variable is extreme in its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average in its second measurement and, paradoxically, if it's extreme in its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average in its first measurement.

Math explains nature.

Each time we measure (listen to) the result of the extreme phenomenon of artificial voices, they will be more normal, more average, more mediocre.

Then, it will again be true that there is always a place for the extraordinary. Steve Jobs said that what mattered most to him in life was going to bed thinking that day he had contributed to something like that.

The extraordinary in our world is nothing special: exposing, collaborating, discussing, trying, listening, re-trying, playing, exploring, deciding, approving, and going to eat. Or to bathe the children.

We have been raised in an industry demanding certainty (advertising production) that, circumstantially, has operated more quickly thanks to technology. But just that: faster. Forty years ago, when the brand manager of Coke wanted to approve the voice of a piece that would be broadcast throughout his national territory, he had to get in a car and move to the recording studio or wait for someone on a motorcycle to bring him a Betacam copy to the multimedia room of his office. Today, he accepts a Meet link.

Technology has not changed the artistic appreciation of the creative director telling an actor: "hey, what if we try not to smile this time." AI will not change the experience of looking at each other among all those involved in the approval of a spot and noticing that there is consensus. The exciting "we've got it!"

And as long as humans continue being humans, certainty will be given to each other by looking into each other's eyes, listening to each other. Together.

We don't doubt that artificial intelligence will disintermediate humans in average voice jobs, for average brands achieving normal results. But we live in the extraordinary. In the nuances that make us sleep well at night, like it happened to Jobs.

One of the principles with which Jeff Bezos guided his company Amazon was to focus on what won't change. In his case: his customers will always want what they buy to be cheaper and arrive sooner at their homes. We also think about what won't change in our world:

In communication: from collaborative and creative experiments, unexpected nuances closer to art than science arise. And nothing like those nuances, deeply human, will capture the attention and emotion of other humans.

Jose Barreiro

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